Once again, highly incentivized, highly trained analysts, within their area of expertise, within a well-understood, highly-regulated industry, mostly get it really wrong, whether predicting sales of a new drug, or predicting sales of a new competitor to an existing drug. Michael Mauboussin & Dan Callahan in Total Addressable Market, Credit Suisse 2015 (my emphasis)
Further, forecasts for follow-on drugs were no better than the first launches within a therapeutic class. Almost two-thirds of the estimates missed the peak revenue amount by 40 percent or more. The data included more than 1,700 individual forecasts on 260 drugs over a recent ten-year span. Researchers at McKinsey & Company, a consulting firm, studied the sales forecasts for new drugs made by analysts at brokerage firms.
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